David Lacoste

Research·03 / 06

Limits to economic growth

An economy, like a cell or an autocatalytic network, grows by transforming resources into more of itself. I use the tools developed for chemical reaction networks and stochastic dynamics to ask what limits economic growth, and at what cost for the climate.

Debt and carbon lock-in · Growth vs. risk · Economic principles in biology

Debt, growth and emissions

Global CO₂ emissions keep rising despite climate policies and efficiency gains. With a stochastic macro-financial model calibrated on data for the United States, China, France and Denmark, we showed that debt-financed growth increases cumulative emissions, while gains in real wealth level off beyond a certain leverage. Reaching net zero therefore likely requires steering credit towards decarbonisation.

Growth and risk

Maximising long-term growth exposes a population, or a portfolio, to large fluctuations. Building on Kelly's theory of optimal betting, we studied the trade-off between growth and risk and how it applies beyond gambling, to biological populations and economic agents.

Economic principles in biology

Cells allocate limited resources between competing tasks, much as an economy does. In two chapters of the book Economic principles in cell biology, we discuss the universal features of autocatalytic systems and how cells behave in the face of uncertainty, building a bridge between growth theories in biology and in economics.

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